Leap Of Faith
Leap Of Faith
There has always be a yearning for absolutism. In almost everything we get involved in. It started with medicine. There was a craving for the ultimate answer. We don’t like probabilities. There is a fifty percent chance we will cure this cancer. We don’t like having to chase the odds. This pervades health and medicine, but also expands to other parts of life. The personal finance realm is no different. We search for certainty in an uncertain world. We mathematically model and re run each scenario after modifying variables. It feels good to act like we are in control of all the black and white swan events that may befall us. But in reality, both medicine and financial independence leave us with the same bitter taste in our mouths. There are no absolutes. Life is a great big leap of faith.
Medicine
Almost anyone can tell us how to increase the probability that we will live a long and healthy life. This is not rocket science. Eat healthy. Don’t smoke. Get lots of exercise. There are no real secrets here.
Yet, human activity can only safeguard us so much. There is no way we can calculate a way out of bad genetics. Accidents happen to even the most careful of us. And then there is the curse of plain old bad luck.
We realize that there are only so many variables that can be controlled. The rest is up to the divine. Or happenstance, for the non religious. No matter how we look at it, sanity requires a leap of faith. In order to move forward in life, we have to accept that everything will probably be okay even if we can’t bring the likelihood up to a hundred percent.
We probably won’t get cancer. Most likely we don’t have a genetic ticking time bomb. Hopefully luck will be on our side and shield us from accidents and other unforeseen events.
Financial Independence
Our finances are no different. I am the first one to worship at the alter of mathematical equations. I can spend at least a few hours lost in FireCalc manipulating variables. It makes me feel certain. If I just change things so, I will find my likelihood of success at 100%!
But it is a false sense of security. No one truly knows what the market will do over the next few years. Look at Japan. It is impossible to divine whether an unexpected need will rear its ugly head. Will there be unforeseen medical expenses? A pending lawsuit? G-d forbid, long term care?
No matter how hard we try to find certainty, it doesn’t exist. It never existed. The only certainty is that we have to take a leap of faith to move forward. Otherwise we will end up caught in a spiral of never ending negative possibilities.
There are no absolutes.
Final Thoughts
Medicine, our finances, and even life require a leap of faith. Even if we are not religious. Even if we are great proponents of the power of math. There are just some things we can’t control or foretell.
And that’s just fine.
I love FireCalc. It was a lot of fun to mess around with the numbers and permutations. But you’re right. Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the future. You just have to take a leap of faith and be adaptable. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it won’t. I’m still in a much better position than most people by being FI.
Yes, I can mess with FireCalc for hours.
In fact 1/3 gets some kind of cancer. Of the 1 who gets it 20% die which means 80% recover and of those that recover 40% go bankrupt treating their cancer. Survival can be quite expensive. I have no problem living a statistical life which directs both bands of certainty and uncertainty. Really the only thing you can do is try and improve your certainty and reduce uncertainty given the hand you are dealt . Not smoking diet and exercise improve certainty so do them, but they are not protective.
Very true. We have some control, but not total.